Armenia · Premier League · Regular Season - 615:00
BKMA

15:00 UTC

Friday, 4 September 2026

Football Academy Stadium · Analysis updated 02:43 UTC

BKMA vs FC Urartu Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.02 expected goals for BKMA and 1.43 for FC Urartu, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives FC Urartu the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws roughly 54% of the time.

Model pick

FC Urartu to Win

46.2% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.02 – 1.43

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

BKMA win27%
Draw27%
FC Urartu win46%

Double chance 1X

54%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

73%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals70%
Over 2.5 goals44%
Over 3.5 goals23%
Both teams to score49%

Correct score

  • 1–112.6%
  • 0–112.3%
  • 1–29.0%
  • 1–08.8%
  • 0–28.8%

Why the model likes this

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates FC Urartu to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 27% / 27% / 46% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.02 goals for BKMA and 1.43 for FC Urartu, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 44% and both teams to score at 49%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.

  • Model confidence

    FC Urartu to Win is the headline pick at 46% with low confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

BKMA

    FC Urartu

      Head-to-head

      Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

      Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.