Prediction Methodology

The model uses each team's attacking and defensive strength, derived from goals scored and conceded relative to opposition quality, plus recent form, home and away splits, and competition-level scoring baselines.

It does not use subjective ratings, tipster opinion or market prices. Odds shown on fixture pages are for comparison only and are not model inputs.

Team strengths are combined with the opponent's defensive rating and a home advantage adjustment to produce an expected goals figure for each side in that specific fixture. These two numbers are the foundation of every market we publish.

The two expected-goals figures are passed through a Poisson distribution to produce the probability of every plausible scoreline. All published markets are sums over that single grid, which guarantees internal consistency: 1X2 probabilities total 100%, over 1.5 always exceeds over 2.5, and double chance equals the sum of its two components.

Each prediction carries a Low, Medium or High confidence label. This reflects both the strength of the leading probability and the amount of data behind the two teams. Fixtures with sparse form data are capped at lower confidence even when the probability looks decisive.

Fixture pages are only marked indexable once they carry a prediction, sufficient form data for both teams, a league table and a generated analysis. Thin pages are served with noindex,follow so that search engines are not offered pages without substance.

The model cannot see injuries, suspensions, rotation, motivation, weather or in-game red cards. It assumes goal-scoring is approximately Poisson-distributed, which slightly understates very high-scoring matches. It performs least well on cup fixtures between teams from different divisions, where data is limited.

Predictions regenerate as data updates, so numbers can move between your first visit and kickoff.