Estadio La Rosaleda · Analysis updated 07:07 UTC
Malaga vs Racing Santander Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for Malaga and 1.33 for Racing Santander, a combined total of 3.14. That distribution gives Malaga the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws roughly 51% of the time.
Model pick
Malaga to Win
48.7% probability
Expected goals
1.81 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.4%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–07.8%
- 2–07.1%
- 1–26.9%
Why the model likes this
Malaga home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Racing Santander away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Malaga to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 23% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.81 goals for Malaga and 1.33 for Racing Santander, a combined 3.14 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
Malaga
- 2026-08-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Fulham · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-07T17:00:00.000Z · A vs AD Ceuta FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Arabi SC · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-07-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Ittihad FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Leicester · 3-3 (D)
Racing Santander
- 2026-08-07T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Alaves · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-07T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Gijon · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Wolves · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-07-29T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Club · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-07-24T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Osasuna · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alaves | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 2 | Sevilla | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Barcelona | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Villarreal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Atletico Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Real Betis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Celta Vigo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Valencia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Real Sociedad | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Espanyol | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Athletic Club | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Elche | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Levante | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Osasuna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Racing Santander | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Deportivo La Coruna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | Malaga | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 | Rayo Vallecano | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 20 | Getafe | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.