Minsk II vs Niva Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Minsk II and 2.42 for Niva, a combined total of 3.62. That distribution gives Niva the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws roughly 36% of the time.

Model pick

Niva to Win

64.2% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.20 – 2.42

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Minsk II win17%

Draw18%

Niva win64%

Double chance 1X

36%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

83%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%

Over 2.5 goals70%

Over 3.5 goals49%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

1–29.4%
0–27.9%
1–17.8%
1–37.6%
0–16.5%

Why the model likes this

Most likely outcome
The model rates Niva to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 17% / 18% / 64% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Minsk II and 2.42 for Niva, a combined 3.62 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 70% and both teams to score at 64%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Model confidence
Niva to Win is the headline pick at 64% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

Minsk II

Niva

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

1. Division table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Niva	20	13	3	4	26	42
2	FC Slutsk	20	12	4	4	17	40
3	FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk	20	11	5	4	17	38
4	Lida	20	11	3	6	5	36
5	Slonim	19	10	3	6	12	33
6	Molodechno-DYuSSh 4	20	10	2	8	0	32
7	Volna	19	9	4	6	5	31
8	Shakhter Soligorsk	20	8	5	7	6	29
9	Bumprom	19	8	4	7	7	28
10	Dinamo Minsk II	18	7	4	7	6	25
11	Minsk II	19	8	1	10	-11	25
12	Orsha	19	6	4	9	-12	22
13	Ostrovets FC	19	4	9	6	-4	21
14	Uni Minsk	20	5	6	9	-10	21
15	Gomel II	20	5	5	10	-5	20
16	Smorgon	19	5	5	9	-7	20
17	Osipovichy	20	4	2	14	-29	14
18	BATE II	19	2	5	12	-23	11

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.