· Analysis updated 04:33 UTC
AC Milan vs Cagliari Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.74 expected goals for AC Milan and 0.78 for Cagliari, a combined total of 2.52. That distribution gives AC Milan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws roughly 40% of the time.
Model pick
AC Milan to Win
60.4% probability
Expected goals
1.74 – 0.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.0%
- 2–012.2%
- 1–110.9%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–08.1%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates AC Milan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 23% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.74 goals for AC Milan and 0.78 for Cagliari, a combined 2.52 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 46% and both teams to score at 45%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Model confidence
AC Milan to Win is the headline pick at 60% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
AC Milan
Cagliari
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie A table
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.