AC Milan vs Fiorentina Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for AC Milan and 0.79 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives AC Milan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws roughly 42% of the time.

Model pick

AC Milan to Win

57.9% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.65 – 0.79

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

AC Milan win58%

Draw24%

Fiorentina win18%

Double chance 1X

82%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

42%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals70%

Over 2.5 goals44%

Over 3.5 goals23%

Both teams to score44%

Correct score

1–014.3%
2–011.8%
1–111.4%
2–19.4%
0–08.7%

Why the model likes this

Most likely outcome
The model rates AC Milan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 24% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.65 goals for AC Milan and 0.79 for Fiorentina, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 44% and both teams to score at 44%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Model confidence
AC Milan to Win is the headline pick at 58% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

AC Milan

Fiorentina

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Inter	38	27	6	5	54	87
2	Napoli	38	23	7	8	22	76
3	AS Roma	38	23	4	11	28	73
4	Como	38	20	11	7	36	71
5	AC Milan	38	20	10	8	18	70
6	Juventus	38	19	12	7	27	69
7	Atalanta	38	15	14	9	15	59
8	Bologna	38	16	8	14	3	56
9	Lazio	38	14	12	12	1	54
10	Udinese	38	14	8	16	-3	50
11	Sassuolo	38	14	7	17	-4	49
12	Torino	38	12	9	17	-19	45
13	Parma	38	11	12	15	-18	45
14	Cagliari	38	11	10	17	-13	43
15	Fiorentina	38	9	15	14	-9	42
16	Genoa	38	10	11	17	-10	41
17	Lecce	38	10	8	20	-22	38
18	Cremonese	38	8	10	20	-25	34
19	Hellas Verona	38	3	12	23	-36	21
20	Pisa	38	2	12	24	-45	18

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.