· Analysis updated 06:09 UTC
Academico Viseu vs Nacional Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Academico Viseu and 1.75 for Nacional, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives Nacional the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.
Model pick
Nacional or Draw
66.8% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 1.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.2%
- 1–28.9%
- 2–17.6%
- 0–16.8%
- 2–26.7%
Why the model likes this
Academico Viseu home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 9 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nacional to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 33% / 23% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Academico Viseu and 1.75 for Nacional, a combined 3.25 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
Academico Viseu
- 2026-08-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Santa Clara · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-09T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Benfica · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-29T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Celta Vigo · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-25T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Lusitânia Lourosa · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-16T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting CP B · 0-0 (D)
Nacional
Head-to-head
- 2024-03-09T14:00:00.000Z · Academico Viseu 1-1 Nacional (Segunda Liga)
- 2023-10-29T11:00:00.000Z · Academico Viseu 1-1 Nacional (Segunda Liga)
- 2023-05-28T14:30:00.000Z · Academico Viseu 2-3 Nacional (Segunda Liga)
- 2023-01-21T11:00:00.000Z · Academico Viseu 1-1 Nacional (Segunda Liga)
- 2022-05-07T14:30:00.000Z · Academico Viseu 2-1 Nacional (Segunda Liga)
- 2021-12-29T15:30:00.000Z · Academico Viseu 1-4 Nacional (Segunda Liga)
- 2020-01-05T15:00:00.000Z · Academico Viseu 0-0 Nacional (Segunda Liga)
- 2018-02-18T15:00:00.000Z · Academico Viseu 3-3 Nacional (Segunda Liga)
- 2017-09-10T10:15:00.000Z · Academico Viseu 0-2 Nacional (Segunda Liga)
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Santa Clara | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | GIL Vicente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Maritimo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Arouca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Estrela | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 8 | SC Braga | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Famalicao | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Estoril | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Moreirense | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Benfica | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Nacional | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 | Academico Viseu | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 15 | Alverca | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 17 | Vitória SC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 18 | Rio Ave | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.