Estadio Jose Maria Minella · Referee Juan Pafundi, Argentina · Analysis updated 19:40 UTC
Aldosivi vs Tigre Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.68 expected goals for Aldosivi and 1.05 for Tigre, a combined total of 1.73. That distribution gives Tigre the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 25% for over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.
Model pick
Tigre or Draw
76.8% probability
Expected goals
0.68 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–118.7%
- 0–017.8%
- 1–112.6%
- 1–012.0%
- 0–29.8%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tigre to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 23% / 33% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.68 goals for Aldosivi and 1.05 for Tigre, a combined 1.73 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 25% and both teams to score at 32%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 19%.
Model confidence
Tigre or Draw is the headline pick at 77% with high confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
Aldosivi
Tigre
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.