Alverca vs Santa Clara Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.09 expected goals for Alverca and 1.02 for Santa Clara, a combined total of 2.12. That distribution gives Alverca the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws roughly 63% of the time.

Model pick

Alverca or Draw

66.6% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.09 – 1.02

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Alverca win37%

Draw30%

Santa Clara win33%

Double chance 1X

67%

Double chance 12

70%

Double chance X2

63%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals63%

Over 2.5 goals36%

Over 3.5 goals17%

Both teams to score43%

Correct score

1–113.5%
1–013.2%
0–112.3%
0–012.0%
2–17.4%

Why the model likes this

Most likely outcome
The model rates Alverca to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 37% / 30% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.09 goals for Alverca and 1.02 for Santa Clara, a combined 2.12 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 36% and both teams to score at 43%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Model confidence
Alverca or Draw is the headline pick at 67% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

Alverca

Santa Clara

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primeira Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Porto	34	28	4	2	48	88
2	Sporting CP	34	25	7	2	65	82
3	Benfica	34	23	11	0	49	80
4	SC Braga	34	16	11	7	28	59
5	Famalicao	34	15	11	8	13	56
6	GIL Vicente	34	13	11	10	9	50
7	Moreirense	34	12	7	15	-12	43
8	Arouca	34	12	6	16	-17	42
9	Vitória SC	34	12	6	16	-12	42
10	Estoril	34	10	9	15	-3	39
11	Alverca	34	10	9	15	-17	39
12	Rio Ave	34	8	12	14	-22	36
13	Santa Clara	34	9	9	16	-9	36
14	Nacional	34	9	7	18	-8	34
15	Estrela	34	6	12	16	-18	30
16	Casa Pia	34	6	12	16	-26	30
17	Tondela	34	6	10	18	-28	28
18	AVS	34	3	12	19	-40	21

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.