· Analysis updated 02:59 UTC
Annagh United vs Moyola Park Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.13 expected goals for Annagh United and 1.87 for Moyola Park, a combined total of 4.00. That distribution gives Annagh United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws roughly 55% of the time.
Model pick
Annagh United or Draw
65.3% probability
Expected goals
2.13 – 1.87
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.8%
- 1–17.3%
- 2–27.3%
- 1–26.8%
- 3–15.5%
Why the model likes this
Annagh United home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Annagh United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 21% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.13 goals for Annagh United and 1.87 for Moyola Park, a combined 4.00 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 76% and both teams to score at 75%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Recent form
Annagh United
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dundela · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Rathfriland · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Newington Youth · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-01T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Ballymena United · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ballymacash Rangers · 5-2 (W)
Moyola Park
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ards | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Newington Youth | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Glenavon FC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 4 | H&W Welders | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 5 | Newry City AFC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 6 |
| 6 | Loughgall | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| 7 | Moyola Park | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 | Queen's University | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 9 | Institute | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | Annagh United | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | Dundela | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 | Strabane Athletic | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 13 | Ballinamallard United | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 14 | Warrenpoint Town | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 15 | Armagh City | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 16 | Rathfriland | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.