Lambert Park · Analysis updated 02:49 UTC
APIA Leichhardt Tigers vs SD Raiders Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.08 expected goals for APIA Leichhardt Tigers and 1.12 for SD Raiders, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives APIA Leichhardt Tigers the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws roughly 41% of the time.
Model pick
APIA Leichhardt Tigers to Win
59.4% probability
Expected goals
2.08 – 1.12
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.5%
- 2–08.8%
- 1–08.5%
- 3–16.8%
Why the model likes this
APIA Leichhardt Tigers home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates APIA Leichhardt Tigers to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 21% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.08 goals for APIA Leichhardt Tigers and 1.12 for SD Raiders, a combined 3.20 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 62% and both teams to score at 59%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Odds comparison
Indicative prices for the main markets.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Home | 1.53 | 10Bet |
| Match Result | Draw | 4.00 | 10Bet |
| Match Result | Away | 5.00 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.48 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.50 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.20 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.62 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 3.65 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 4.5 | 1.25 | 10Bet |
| BTTS | Yes | 1.50 | 10Bet |
| BTTS | No | 2.30 | 10Bet |
| Double Chance | Home/Draw | 1.11 | 10Bet |
| Double Chance | Home/Away | 1.15 | 10Bet |
| Double Chance | Draw/Away | 2.35 | 10Bet |
Recent form
APIA Leichhardt Tigers
- 2026-08-15T06:00:00.000Z · H vs SD Raiders · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-12T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Sydney United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-08T08:30:00.000Z · A vs St. George Saints · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-02T06:00:00.000Z · A vs Sydney Olympic · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-07-25T08:00:00.000Z · H vs UNSW · 4-1 (W)
SD Raiders
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
New South Wales NPL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | APIA Leichhardt Tigers | 28 | 20 | 4 | 4 | 29 | 64 |
| 2 | Sydney United | 28 | 19 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 60 |
| 3 | Marconi Stallions | 27 | 17 | 4 | 6 | 26 | 55 |
| 4 | Sutherland Sharks | 27 | 13 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 43 |
| 5 | Rockdale City Suns | 27 | 12 | 4 | 11 | 6 | 40 |
| 6 | Manly United | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 38 |
| 7 | SD Raiders | 28 | 11 | 5 | 12 | -5 | 38 |
| 8 | NWS Spirit | 28 | 11 | 4 | 13 | -2 | 37 |
| 9 | Sydney FC U23 | 28 | 10 | 7 | 11 | -6 | 37 |
| 10 | St George City FA | 28 | 10 | 7 | 11 | -13 | 37 |
| 11 | Western Sydney Wanderers U23 | 28 | 10 | 5 | 13 | 7 | 35 |
| 12 | Wollongong Wolves | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 32 |
| 13 | Blacktown City | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | -4 | 31 |
| 14 | UNSW | 27 | 9 | 4 | 14 | -7 | 31 |
| 15 | St. George Saints | 28 | 7 | 3 | 18 | -22 | 24 |
| 16 | Sydney Olympic | 28 | 6 | 4 | 18 | -29 | 22 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.