Arouca vs Famalicao Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.05 expected goals for Arouca and 1.55 for Famalicao, a combined total of 2.61. That distribution gives Famalicao the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws roughly 51% of the time.

Model pick

Famalicao to Win

48.9% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.05 – 1.55

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Arouca win26%

Draw25%

Famalicao win49%

Double chance 1X

51%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

74%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals48%

Over 3.5 goals27%

Both teams to score51%

Correct score

1–112.1%
0–111.5%
1–29.4%
0–28.9%
1–07.8%

Why the model likes this

Most likely outcome
The model rates Famalicao to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 26% / 25% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.05 goals for Arouca and 1.55 for Famalicao, a combined 2.61 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 48% and both teams to score at 51%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Model confidence
Famalicao to Win is the headline pick at 49% with low confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

Arouca

2026-08-08T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitória SC · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-01T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Lusitânia Lourosa · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-25T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Santa Clara · 0-3 (L)
2026-07-22T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Famalicao · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Feirense · 0-0 (D)

Famalicao

2026-08-07T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Estoril · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-31T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Como · 2-3 (L)
2026-07-28T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Lens · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-28T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Crystal Palace · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-25T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Tondela · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primeira Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Porto	34	28	4	2	48	88
2	Sporting CP	34	25	7	2	65	82
3	Benfica	34	23	11	0	49	80
4	SC Braga	34	16	11	7	28	59
5	Famalicao	34	15	11	8	13	56
6	GIL Vicente	34	13	11	10	9	50
7	Moreirense	34	12	7	15	-12	43
8	Arouca	34	12	6	16	-17	42
9	Guimaraes	34	12	6	16	-12	42
10	Estoril	34	10	9	15	-3	39
11	Alverca	34	10	9	15	-17	39
12	Rio Ave	34	8	12	14	-22	36
13	Santa Clara	34	9	9	16	-9	36
14	Nacional	34	9	7	18	-8	34
15	Estrela	34	6	12	16	-18	30
16	Casa Pia	34	6	12	16	-26	30
17	Tondela	34	6	10	18	-28	28
18	AVS	34	3	12	19	-40	21

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.