Arsenal vs Como Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.25 expected goals for Arsenal and 2.00 for Como, a combined total of 4.25. That distribution gives Arsenal the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws roughly 55% of the time.

Model pick

Arsenal or Draw

64.6% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

2.25 – 2.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Arsenal win45%

Draw20%

Como win35%

Double chance 1X

65%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

55%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals92%

Over 2.5 goals80%

Over 3.5 goals61%

Both teams to score77%

Correct score

2–17.2%
2–27.2%
1–16.4%
1–26.4%
3–15.4%

Why the model likes this

Arsenal home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Arsenal to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 20% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.25 goals for Arsenal and 2.00 for Como, a combined 4.25 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 80% and both teams to score at 77%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.

Recent form

Arsenal

2026-08-12T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Como · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-09T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Dortmund · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-05T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Real Betis · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Girona · 4-1 (W)
2026-05-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Paris Saint Germain · 1-1 (D)

Como

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.