· Analysis updated 02:44 UTC
Ashton United vs Ilkeston Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Ashton United and 0.88 for Ilkeston Town, a combined total of 2.33. That distribution gives Ashton United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws roughly 49% of the time.
Model pick
Ashton United to Win
50.7% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 0.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.2%
- 1–112.4%
- 2–010.3%
- 0–09.7%
- 2–19.0%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ashton United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 27% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for Ashton United and 0.88 for Ilkeston Town, a combined 2.33 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 41% and both teams to score at 45%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Model confidence
Ashton United to Win is the headline pick at 51% with low confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
Ashton United
Ilkeston Town
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Non League Premier - Northern table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cleethorpes Town | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| 2 | Warrington Town | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Bury | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Gainsborough Trinity | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 5 | Avro | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 6 | Alfreton Town | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 7 | Ashton United | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 8 | Whitby Town | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 9 | Ilkeston Town | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 | Redcar Athletic | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 11 | Guiseley AFC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | AFC Emley | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 13 | Hyde United | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 14 | Rylands | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | Curzon Ashton | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 16 | Lancaster City | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 17 | Bamber Bridge | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 3 |
| 18 | Leek Town | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 19 | Stockton Town | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 20 | Workington | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 21 | Quorn | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
| 22 | United of Manchester | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.