Atletico Paranaense vs Fluminense Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Atletico Paranaense and 0.77 for Fluminense, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Atletico Paranaense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws roughly 49% of the time.

Model pick

Atletico Paranaense to Win

51.1% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.38 – 0.77

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Atletico Paranaense win51%

Draw28%

Fluminense win21%

Double chance 1X

79%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

49%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals63%

Over 2.5 goals36%

Over 3.5 goals17%

Both teams to score40%

Correct score

1–016.0%
1–112.4%
0–011.6%
2–011.0%
0–19.0%

Why the model likes this

Atletico Paranaense home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Atletico Paranaense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 28% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for Atletico Paranaense and 0.77 for Fluminense, a combined 2.15 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 36% and both teams to score at 40%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%.

Recent form

Atletico Paranaense

2026-08-15T21:30:00.000Z · H vs RB Bragantino · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-09T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Santos · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-06T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitoria · 0-4 (L)
2026-08-04T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Vitoria · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-30T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Corinthians · 0-0 (D)

Fluminense

2026-08-15T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Palmeiras · 3-2 (W)
2026-08-11T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Independ. Rivadavia · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-09T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Botafogo · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-06T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Vasco DA Gama · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-01T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Vasco DA Gama · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Palmeiras	23	14	6	3	21	48
2	Flamengo	21	12	6	3	21	42
3	Atletico Paranaense	23	12	5	6	11	41
4	Fluminense	23	10	8	5	6	38
5	Cruzeiro	22	9	6	7	-1	33
6	Bahia	22	8	9	5	4	33
7	RB Bragantino	22	9	5	8	4	32
8	Corinthians	22	8	8	6	4	32
9	Coritiba	23	8	7	8	-2	31
10	Botafogo	21	8	6	7	2	30
11	Atletico-MG	21	8	5	8	0	29
12	Sao Paulo	22	7	6	9	1	27
13	Vitoria	22	7	5	10	-11	26
14	Gremio	21	6	7	8	-3	25
15	Mirassol	21	6	5	10	-6	23
16	Internacional	22	5	8	9	-4	23
17	Santos	21	5	7	9	-6	22
18	Vasco DA Gama	21	5	7	9	-8	22
19	Remo	22	5	7	10	-10	22
20	Chapecoense-sc	21	1	7	13	-23	10

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.