Atletico Paranaense vs RB Bragantino Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.47 expected goals for Atletico Paranaense and 0.98 for RB Bragantino, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Atletico Paranaense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws roughly 52% of the time.

Model pick

Atletico Paranaense to Win

48.5% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.47 – 0.98

Model version

poisson-market-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Atletico Paranaense win49%

Draw26%

RB Bragantino win25%

Double chance 1X

75%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

52%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals70%

Over 2.5 goals44%

Over 3.5 goals23%

Both teams to score48%

Correct score

1–012.7%
1–112.4%
2–09.3%
2–19.1%
0–08.6%

Why the model likes this

Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Atletico Paranaense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 26% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.47 goals for Atletico Paranaense and 0.98 for RB Bragantino, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 44% and both teams to score at 48%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.

Odds comparison

Indicative prices for the main markets.

Market	Selection	Odds	Bookmaker
Match Result	Home	1.95	10Bet
Match Result	Draw	3.30	10Bet
Match Result	Away	3.95	10Bet
Goals	Over 1.5	1.38	10Bet
Goals	Under 1.5	3.00	10Bet
Goals	Over 2.5	2.10	10Bet
Goals	Under 2.5	1.70	10Bet
Goals	Over 3.5	3.85	10Bet
Goals	Under 3.5	1.25	10Bet
Goals	Over 0.5	1.07	10Bet
Goals	Under 0.5	8.00	10Bet
Goals	Over 4.5	8.00	10Bet
Goals	Under 4.5	1.07	10Bet
BTTS	Yes	1.85	10Bet
BTTS	No	1.83	10Bet
Double Chance	Home/Draw	1.22	10Bet
Double Chance	Home/Away	1.28	10Bet
Double Chance	Draw/Away	1.80	10Bet

Recent form

Atletico Paranaense

RB Bragantino

2026-08-12T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico-MG · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-09T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Corinthians · 0-2 (L)
2026-07-30T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Cristal · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-26T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Coritiba · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-23T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Cristal · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-07-11T13:00:00.000Z · Atletico Paranaense 1-2 RB Bragantino (Friendlies Clubs)
2026-02-25T22:00:00.000Z · Atletico Paranaense 1-1 RB Bragantino (Serie A)
2024-12-05T23:00:00.000Z · Atletico Paranaense 1-2 RB Bragantino (Serie A)
2024-08-07T22:00:00.000Z · Atletico Paranaense 3-2 RB Bragantino (Copa Do Brasil)
2024-07-31T22:00:00.000Z · Atletico Paranaense 2-0 RB Bragantino (Copa Do Brasil)
2024-07-21T21:30:00.000Z · Atletico Paranaense 0-1 RB Bragantino (Serie A)
2023-10-08T21:30:00.000Z · Atletico Paranaense 1-1 RB Bragantino (Serie A)
2023-05-20T21:30:00.000Z · Atletico Paranaense 0-2 RB Bragantino (Serie A)
2022-10-22T19:30:00.000Z · Atletico Paranaense 2-4 RB Bragantino (Serie A)
2022-06-25T19:30:00.000Z · Atletico Paranaense 4-2 RB Bragantino (Serie A)

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Palmeiras	22	14	6	2	22	48
2	Flamengo	21	12	6	3	21	42
3	Atletico Paranaense	22	12	4	6	11	40
4	Fluminense	22	9	8	5	5	35
5	Cruzeiro	22	9	6	7	-1	33
6	Bahia	22	8	9	5	4	33
7	Corinthians	22	8	8	6	4	32
8	RB Bragantino	21	9	4	8	4	31
9	Botafogo	21	8	6	7	2	30
10	Coritiba	22	8	6	8	-2	30
11	Atletico-MG	21	8	5	8	0	29
12	Sao Paulo	21	7	5	9	1	26
13	Vitoria	22	7	5	10	-11	26
14	Gremio	21	6	7	8	-3	25
15	Mirassol	21	6	5	10	-6	23
16	Internacional	22	5	8	9	-4	23
17	Santos	21	5	7	9	-6	22
18	Vasco DA Gama	21	5	7	9	-8	22
19	Remo	22	5	7	10	-10	22
20	Chapecoense-sc	21	1	7	13	-23	10

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.