Twerton Park · Analysis updated 01:49 UTC
Bath City vs Uxbridge Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.07 expected goals for Bath City and 1.09 for Uxbridge, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Uxbridge the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws roughly 64% of the time.
Model pick
Uxbridge or Draw
65.2% probability
Expected goals
1.07 – 1.09
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.5%
- 0–112.6%
- 1–012.4%
- 0–011.6%
- 1–27.3%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates Uxbridge to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 35% / 30% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.07 goals for Bath City and 1.09 for Uxbridge, a combined 2.15 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 37% and both teams to score at 44%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Model confidence
Uxbridge or Draw is the headline pick at 65% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
Bath City
Uxbridge
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Non League Premier - Southern South table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chertsey Town | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Uxbridge | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Bath City | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Frome Town | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 |
| 5 | Taunton Town | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Hanworth Villa | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 7 | Evesham United | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 8 | Hanwell Town | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 9 | Yate Town | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 10 | Plymouth Parkway | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| 11 | Sholing | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 12 | Chippenham Town | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 13 | Bracknell Town | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -6 | 4 |
| 14 | Basingstoke Town | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 15 | Berkhamsted | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 16 | Poole Town | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 17 | Chichester City | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 18 | Havant & Wville | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 19 | Malvern Town | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 2 |
| 20 | Gloucester City | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 21 | Gosport Borough | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 22 | Wimborne Town | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.