· Analysis updated 05:17 UTC
Benfica vs Arouca Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.36 expected goals for Benfica and 1.28 for Arouca, a combined total of 2.64. That distribution gives Benfica the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws roughly 61% of the time.
Model pick
Benfica or Draw
64.8% probability
Expected goals
1.36 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.4%
- 1–09.7%
- 0–19.1%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–28.0%
Why the model likes this
Benfica home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Arouca away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Benfica to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 26% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.36 goals for Benfica and 1.28 for Arouca, a combined 2.64 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
Benfica
- 2026-08-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Heart Of Midlothian · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-09T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Academico Viseu · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Heart Of Midlothian · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-07-30T19:00:00.000Z · H vs FC ST. Gallen · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-07-24T17:00:00.000Z · H vs CF Os Belenenses · 5-1 (W)
Arouca
- 2026-08-08T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitória SC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-01T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Lusitânia Lourosa · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-25T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Santa Clara · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-07-22T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Famalicao · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Feirense · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Santa Clara | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | GIL Vicente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Maritimo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Arouca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Estrela | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 8 | SC Braga | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Famalicao | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Estoril | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Moreirense | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Benfica | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Nacional | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 | Academico Viseu | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 15 | Alverca | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 17 | Vitória SC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 18 | Rio Ave | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.