· Analysis updated 05:34 UTC
Bologna vs Napoli Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.16 expected goals for Bologna and 1.37 for Napoli, a combined total of 2.52. That distribution gives Napoli the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws roughly 58% of the time.
Model pick
Napoli or Draw
68.4% probability
Expected goals
1.16 – 1.37
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 0–111.0%
- 1–09.3%
- 1–28.7%
- 0–08.0%
Why the model likes this
Bologna home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Napoli to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 32% / 27% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.16 goals for Bologna and 1.37 for Napoli, a combined 2.52 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 46% and both teams to score at 51%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Recent form
Bologna
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brighton · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Pisa · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-01T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Cambuur · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Iraklis 1908 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Heidenheim · 1-1 (D)
Napoli
- 2026-08-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Aris Thessalonikis · 6-2 (W)
- 2026-08-08T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Celta Vigo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-05T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Osasuna · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Carrarese · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-22T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Arezzo · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie A table
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.