Toughsheet Community Stadium · Analysis updated 03:18 UTC
Bolton vs Portsmouth Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.50 expected goals for Bolton and 1.00 for Portsmouth, a combined total of 3.50. That distribution gives Bolton the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws roughly 30% of the time.
Model pick
Bolton to Win
70.0% probability
Expected goals
2.50 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
30%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–09.4%
- 2–19.4%
- 3–07.9%
- 3–17.9%
- 1–07.5%
Why the model likes this
Bolton home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 9 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bolton to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 70% / 17% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.50 goals for Bolton and 1.00 for Portsmouth, a combined 3.50 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
Bolton
- 2026-08-15T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Preston · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sheffield Wednesday · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs NAC Breda · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-28T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Fleetwood Town · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Everton · 0-0 (D)
Portsmouth
Head-to-head
- 2024-04-13T14:00:00.000Z · Bolton 1-1 Portsmouth (League One)
- 2023-12-11T20:00:00.000Z · Bolton 0-2 Portsmouth (League One)
- 2023-02-28T19:45:00.000Z · Bolton 1-3 Portsmouth (League One)
- 2023-01-14T15:00:00.000Z · Bolton 3-0 Portsmouth (League One)
- 2023-01-10T19:45:00.000Z · Bolton 1-0 Portsmouth (EFL Trophy)
- 2022-04-05T19:00:00.000Z · Bolton 1-1 Portsmouth (League One)
- 2021-10-30T14:00:00.000Z · Bolton 0-1 Portsmouth (League One)
- 2020-01-18T15:00:00.000Z · Bolton 0-1 Portsmouth (League One)
- 2019-09-28T14:00:00.000Z · Bolton 0-1 Portsmouth (League One)
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | QPR | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Millwall | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | Bolton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Middlesbrough | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Charlton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | West Brom | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Swansea | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Blackburn | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Wolves | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Sheffield Utd | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | West Ham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Burnley | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Cardiff | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Watford | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Wrexham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Derby | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Norwich | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 19 | Preston | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 20 | Stoke City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 21 | Lincoln | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Portsmouth | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 23 | Bristol City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 24 | Southampton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.