Borussia Dortmund vs AS Roma Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.05 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.50 for AS Roma, a combined total of 3.55. That distribution gives Borussia Dortmund the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws roughly 50% of the time.

Model pick

Borussia Dortmund to Win

50.4% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

2.05 – 1.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Borussia Dortmund win50%

Draw21%

AS Roma win28%

Double chance 1X

72%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

50%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals69%

Over 3.5 goals47%

Both teams to score68%

Correct score

2–19.1%
1–18.8%
2–26.8%
1–26.6%
3–16.2%

Why the model likes this

AS Roma away threat
Scored in 7 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Borussia Dortmund to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 21% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.05 goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.50 for AS Roma, a combined 3.55 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 69% and both teams to score at 68%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.

Recent form

Borussia Dortmund

AS Roma

2026-08-15T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Borussia Dortmund · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brighton · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Newport County · 4-1 (W)
2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cardiff · 1-4 (L)
2026-07-26T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Cannes · 3-3 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.