Bournemouth vs Manchester City Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Bournemouth and 1.85 for Manchester City, a combined total of 3.04. That distribution gives Manchester City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws roughly 47% of the time.

Model pick

Manchester City to Win

52.6% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.20 – 1.85

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Bournemouth win25%

Draw23%

Manchester City win53%

Double chance 1X

47%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

75%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals81%

Over 2.5 goals59%

Over 3.5 goals36%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

1–110.5%
1–29.7%
0–18.8%
0–28.1%
2–16.3%

Why the model likes this

Most likely outcome
The model rates Manchester City to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 25% / 23% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Bournemouth and 1.85 for Manchester City, a combined 3.04 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 59% and both teams to score at 59%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Model confidence
Manchester City to Win is the headline pick at 53% with low confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

Bournemouth

Manchester City

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Arsenal	38	26	7	5	44	85
2	Manchester City	38	23	9	6	42	78
3	Manchester United	38	20	11	7	19	71
4	Aston Villa	38	19	8	11	7	65
5	Liverpool	38	17	9	12	10	60
6	Bournemouth	38	13	18	7	4	57
7	Sunderland	38	14	12	12	-6	54
8	Brighton	38	14	11	13	6	53
9	Brentford	38	14	11	13	3	53
10	Chelsea	38	14	10	14	6	52
11	Fulham	38	15	7	16	-4	52
12	Newcastle	38	14	7	17	-2	49
13	Everton	38	13	10	15	-3	49
14	Leeds	38	11	14	13	-7	47
15	Crystal Palace	38	11	12	15	-10	45
16	Nottingham Forest	38	11	11	16	-3	44
17	Tottenham	38	10	11	17	-9	41
18	West Ham	38	10	9	19	-19	39
19	Burnley	38	4	10	24	-37	22
20	Wolves	38	3	11	24	-41	20

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.