Buxton vs Brackley Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Buxton and 1.15 for Brackley Town, a combined total of 2.54. That distribution gives Buxton the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws roughly 57% of the time.

Model pick

Buxton or Draw

69.1% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.40 – 1.15

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Buxton win43%

Draw27%

Brackley Town win31%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

57%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals72%

Over 2.5 goals47%

Over 3.5 goals25%

Both teams to score51%

Correct score

1–112.6%
1–011.0%
0–19.0%
2–18.8%
0–07.9%

Why the model likes this

Most likely outcome
The model rates Buxton to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 27% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for Buxton and 1.15 for Brackley Town, a combined 2.54 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 47% and both teams to score at 51%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Model confidence
Buxton or Draw is the headline pick at 69% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

Buxton

Brackley Town

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

National League - North table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Chester	2	2	0	0	3	6
2	Worksop Town	2	2	0	0	2	6
3	Macclesfield	2	2	0	0	2	6
4	South Shields	2	2	0	0	2	6
5	Oxford City	2	2	0	0	2	6
6	Hebburn Town	2	1	1	0	2	4
7	Brackley Town	2	1	1	0	1	4
8	Buxton	2	1	1	0	1	4
9	Spennymoor Town	2	1	1	0	1	4
10	Harborough Town	2	1	1	0	1	4
11	Merthyr Town	2	1	0	1	1	3
12	Spalding United	2	1	0	1	1	3
13	Darlington 1883	2	1	0	1	0	3
14	Scarborough Athletic	2	1	0	1	0	3
15	Hereford	2	1	0	1	0	3
16	Morecambe	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Southport	2	0	1	1	-2	1
18	King's Lynn Town	2	0	1	1	-2	1
19	AFC Telford United	2	0	0	2	-2	0
20	Bedford Town	2	0	0	2	-2	0
21	Chorley	2	0	0	2	-2	0
22	Marine	2	0	0	2	-2	0
23	Hednesford Town	2	0	0	2	-3	0
24	Radcliffe	2	0	0	2	-3	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.