Kooi Stadion · Referee Allard Lindhout, Netherlands · Analysis updated 22:58 UTC
Cambuur vs Excelsior Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.31 expected goals for Cambuur and 2.30 for Excelsior, a combined total of 3.61. That distribution gives Excelsior the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws roughly 40% of the time.
Model pick
Excelsior to Win
59.6% probability
Expected goals
1.31 – 2.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
40%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.4%
- 1–18.2%
- 1–37.2%
- 0–27.2%
- 0–16.2%
Why the model likes this
Cambuur home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Excelsior to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 21% / 20% / 60% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.31 goals for Cambuur and 2.30 for Excelsior, a combined 3.61 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 70% and both teams to score at 66%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Recent form
Cambuur
- 2026-08-07T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Excelsior · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-01T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Bologna · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-07-28T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Volos NFC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-24T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Utrecht · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-10T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Roda · 2-1 (W)
Excelsior
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 2 | Fortuna Sittard | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 3 | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | GO Ahead Eagles | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 5 | Ajax | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | Groningen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Feyenoord | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 10 | NEC Nijmegen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | Sparta Rotterdam | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Telstar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 13 | Twente | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 | PEC Zwolle | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 15 | ADO Den Haag | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 | Utrecht | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 17 | Willem II | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 0 |
| 18 | Cambuur | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.