John Frederick Park · Analysis updated 04:26 UTC
Capalaba vs St George Willawong Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Capalaba and 1.06 for St George Willawong, a combined total of 2.69. That distribution gives Capalaba the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws roughly 49% of the time.
Model pick
Capalaba to Win
50.8% probability
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.06
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.7%
- 1–011.1%
- 2–19.6%
- 2–09.1%
- 0–17.2%
Why the model likes this
Capalaba home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Capalaba to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 25% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.63 goals for Capalaba and 1.06 for St George Willawong, a combined 2.69 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 50% and both teams to score at 52%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Recent form
Capalaba
- 2026-08-15T06:15:00.000Z · H vs Robina City · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-09T06:00:00.000Z · A vs Ipswich · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-07-31T10:30:00.000Z · A vs North Star · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-19T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Holland Park Hawks · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-07-11T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Redlands United · 1-1 (D)
St George Willawong
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Queensland Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brisbane Strikers | 22 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 34 | 54 |
| 2 | Broadbeach United | 22 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 31 | 52 |
| 3 | SC Wanderers | 22 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 18 | 37 |
| 4 | Ipswich | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 35 |
| 5 | Robina City | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 32 |
| 6 | Caboolture | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 7 | 31 |
| 7 | Redlands United | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 30 |
| 8 | Holland Park Hawks | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | -8 | 30 |
| 9 | Logan Lightning | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | -2 | 27 |
| 10 | North Star | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | -19 | 21 |
| 11 | St George Willawong | 22 | 4 | 1 | 17 | -39 | 13 |
| 12 | Capalaba | 22 | 3 | 2 | 17 | -36 | 11 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.