· Analysis updated 06:08 UTC
Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.93 expected goals for Casa Pia and 1.54 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 2.47. That distribution gives GIL Vicente the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws roughly 48% of the time.
Model pick
GIL Vicente to Win
51.7% probability
Expected goals
0.93 – 1.54
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.1%
- 1–112.1%
- 0–210.1%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–08.5%
Why the model likes this
Casa Pia home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates GIL Vicente to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 23% / 26% / 52% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.93 goals for Casa Pia and 1.54 for GIL Vicente, a combined 2.47 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 45% and both teams to score at 48%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Recent form
Casa Pia
- 2026-08-08T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Maritimo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-01T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Leixoes · 2-6 (L)
- 2026-07-25T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Benfica B · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Estrela · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-28T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Torreense · 2-0 (W)
GIL Vicente
- 2026-08-09T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Rio Ave · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-25T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Moreirense · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-22T19:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Porto · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Felgueiras 1932 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-16T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Sporting CP · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Santa Clara | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | GIL Vicente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Maritimo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Arouca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Estrela | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 8 | SC Braga | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Famalicao | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Estoril | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Moreirense | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Benfica | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Nacional | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 | Academico Viseu | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 15 | Alverca | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 17 | Vitória SC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 18 | Rio Ave | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.