The Valley · Analysis updated 07:07 UTC
Charlton vs Cardiff Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for Charlton and 1.79 for Cardiff, a combined total of 3.55. That distribution gives Cardiff the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws roughly 60% of the time.
Model pick
Cardiff or Draw
61.7% probability
Expected goals
1.76 – 1.79
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.0%
- 1–28.1%
- 2–18.0%
- 2–27.1%
- 0–15.1%
Why the model likes this
Cardiff away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cardiff to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 38% / 22% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.76 goals for Charlton and 1.79 for Cardiff, a combined 3.55 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 69% and both teams to score at 69%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Recent form
Charlton
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Derby · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-08T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Cheltenham · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-01T13:15:00.000Z · A vs Reading · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-07-28T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Colchester · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs AFC Wimbledon · 0-2 (L)
Cardiff
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Swindon Town · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AS Roma · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Forest Green · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-07-14T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Cork City · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-07-11T11:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Midtjylland · 0-6 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | QPR | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Millwall | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | Bolton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Middlesbrough | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Charlton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | West Brom | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Swansea | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Blackburn | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Wolves | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Sheffield Utd | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | West Ham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Burnley | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Cardiff | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Watford | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Wrexham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Derby | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Norwich | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 19 | Preston | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 20 | Stoke City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 21 | Lincoln | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Portsmouth | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 23 | Bristol City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 24 | Southampton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.