· Analysis updated 23:49 UTC
Chełmianka Chełm vs Sokół Kolb. Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.13 expected goals for Chełmianka Chełm and 0.75 for Sokół Kolb., a combined total of 2.88. That distribution gives Chełmianka Chełm the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws roughly 31% of the time.
Model pick
Chełmianka Chełm to Win
69.0% probability
Expected goals
2.13 – 0.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
31%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–012.7%
- 1–011.9%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–19.0%
- 3–09.0%
Why the model likes this
Chełmianka Chełm home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Chełmianka Chełm to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 69% / 19% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.13 goals for Chełmianka Chełm and 0.75 for Sokół Kolb., a combined 2.88 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 55% and both teams to score at 47%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Recent form
Chełmianka Chełm
- 2026-08-15T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Moravia Morawica · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sokół Kolb. · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-18T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Hetman Zamosc · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-11T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Górnik Łęczna · 1-4 (L)
Sokół Kolb.
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
III Liga - Group 4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chełmianka Chełm | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 2 | Wiślanie Jaśkowice | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 3 | Wisłoka Dębica | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 4 | KSZO 1929 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Wisła Kraków II | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Czarni Połaniec | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Naprzód | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 8 | Hetman Zamosc | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
| 9 | Siarka Tarnobrzeg | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 10 | Podlasie Biała Podlaska | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | Busko-Zdroj | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 12 | KS Wieczysta Krakow II | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 13 | Moravia Morawica | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 14 | Jarosław | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 15 | Sokół Kolb. | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 16 | Star Starachowice | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
| 17 | Korona Kielce II | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
| 18 | Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.