Estadio de Colegiales · Analysis updated 23:48 UTC
Colegiales vs Patronato Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.16 expected goals for Colegiales and 0.74 for Patronato, a combined total of 1.90. That distribution gives Colegiales the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws roughly 54% of the time.
Model pick
Colegiales to Win
45.7% probability
Expected goals
1.16 – 0.74
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.3%
- 0–015.0%
- 1–112.8%
- 0–111.1%
- 2–010.1%
Why the model likes this
Colegiales home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Patronato away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Colegiales to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 31% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.16 goals for Colegiales and 0.74 for Patronato, a combined 1.90 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Odds comparison
Indicative prices for the main markets.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Home | 2.00 | 10Bet |
| Match Result | Draw | 2.75 | 10Bet |
| Match Result | Away | 4.20 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 1.67 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | 2.10 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 3.00 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.35 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 1.14 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 0.5 | 5.00 | 10Bet |
| BTTS | Yes | 2.38 | 10Bet |
| BTTS | No | 1.48 | 10Bet |
| Double Chance | Home/Draw | 1.15 | 10Bet |
| Double Chance | Home/Away | 1.33 | 10Bet |
| Double Chance | Draw/Away | 1.75 | 10Bet |
Recent form
Colegiales
- 2026-08-15T18:00:00.000Z · A vs San Miguel · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Patronato · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia Jujuy · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-26T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Quilmes · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-14T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlanta · 0-1 (L)
Patronato
- 2026-08-15T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Colon Santa Fe · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Colegiales · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-01T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Quilmes · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-07-26T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Midland · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-12T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia Y Tiro · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.