Argentina · Primera Nacional · Regular Season - 2418:00

22

Sunday, 9 August 2026

Estadio de Colegiales · Analysis updated 23:48 UTC

Colegiales vs Patronato Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.16 expected goals for Colegiales and 0.74 for Patronato, a combined total of 1.90. That distribution gives Colegiales the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws roughly 54% of the time.

Model pick

Colegiales to Win

45.7% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.16 – 0.74

Model version

poisson-market-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Colegiales win46%
Draw31%
Patronato win24%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

69%

Double chance X2

54%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals57%
Over 2.5 goals30%
Over 3.5 goals13%
Both teams to score36%

Correct score

  • 1–017.3%
  • 0–015.0%
  • 1–112.8%
  • 0–111.1%
  • 2–010.1%

Why the model likes this

  • Colegiales home form

    10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.

  • Patronato away threat

    Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Colegiales to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 31% / 24% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.16 goals for Colegiales and 0.74 for Patronato, a combined 1.90 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Odds comparison

Indicative prices for the main markets.

MarketSelectionOddsBookmaker
Match ResultHome2.0010Bet
Match ResultDraw2.7510Bet
Match ResultAway4.2010Bet
GoalsOver 1.51.6710Bet
GoalsUnder 1.52.1010Bet
GoalsOver 2.53.0010Bet
GoalsUnder 2.51.3510Bet
GoalsOver 0.51.1410Bet
GoalsUnder 0.55.0010Bet
BTTSYes2.3810Bet
BTTSNo1.4810Bet
Double ChanceHome/Draw1.1510Bet
Double ChanceHome/Away1.3310Bet
Double ChanceDraw/Away1.7510Bet

Recent form

Colegiales

  • 2026-08-15T18:00:00.000Z · A vs San Miguel · 0-2 (L)
  • 2026-08-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Patronato · 2-2 (D)
  • 2026-08-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia Jujuy · 2-1 (W)
  • 2026-07-26T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Quilmes · 1-0 (W)
  • 2026-07-14T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlanta · 0-1 (L)

Patronato

  • 2026-08-15T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Colon Santa Fe · 0-3 (L)
  • 2026-08-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Colegiales · 2-2 (D)
  • 2026-08-01T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Quilmes · 3-3 (D)
  • 2026-07-26T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Midland · 0-1 (L)
  • 2026-07-12T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia Y Tiro · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.