Corinthians vs Atletico-MG Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.26 expected goals for Corinthians and 0.90 for Atletico-MG, a combined total of 2.16. That distribution gives Corinthians the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws roughly 55% of the time.

Model pick

Corinthians or Draw

73.5% probability

High confidence

Expected goals

1.26 – 0.90

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Corinthians win45%

Draw29%

Atletico-MG win27%

Double chance 1X

74%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

55%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals64%

Over 2.5 goals37%

Over 3.5 goals17%

Both teams to score43%

Correct score

1–014.6%
1–113.1%
0–011.6%
0–110.4%
2–09.2%

Why the model likes this

Atletico-MG away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Corinthians to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 29% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.26 goals for Corinthians and 0.90 for Atletico-MG, a combined 2.16 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 37% and both teams to score at 43%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%.

Recent form

Corinthians

Atletico-MG

2026-08-12T22:00:00.000Z · A vs RB Bragantino · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-08T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Remo · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-04T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Juventude · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-01T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Juventude · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-26T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Palmeiras · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Palmeiras	23	14	6	3	21	48
2	Flamengo	21	12	6	3	21	42
3	Atletico Paranaense	23	12	5	6	11	41
4	Fluminense	23	10	8	5	6	38
5	Cruzeiro	22	9	6	7	-1	33
6	Bahia	22	8	9	5	4	33
7	RB Bragantino	22	9	5	8	4	32
8	Corinthians	22	8	8	6	4	32
9	Botafogo	21	8	6	7	2	30
10	Coritiba	22	8	6	8	-2	30
11	Atletico-MG	21	8	5	8	0	29
12	Sao Paulo	21	7	5	9	1	26
13	Vitoria	22	7	5	10	-11	26
14	Gremio	21	6	7	8	-3	25
15	Mirassol	21	6	5	10	-6	23
16	Internacional	22	5	8	9	-4	23
17	Santos	21	5	7	9	-6	22
18	Vasco DA Gama	21	5	7	9	-8	22
19	Remo	22	5	7	10	-10	22
20	Chapecoense-sc	21	1	7	13	-23	10

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.