· Analysis updated 23:46 UTC
Cruzeiro U20 vs Santa Maria U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.27 expected goals for Cruzeiro U20 and 2.20 for Santa Maria U20, a combined total of 4.47. That distribution gives Cruzeiro U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 80% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws roughly 59% of the time.
Model pick
Cruzeiro U20 or Draw
61.0% probability
Expected goals
2.27 – 2.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–27.1%
- 2–16.5%
- 1–26.3%
- 1–15.7%
- 3–25.4%
Why the model likes this
Cruzeiro U20 home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cruzeiro U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 20% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.27 goals for Cruzeiro U20 and 2.20 for Santa Maria U20, a combined 4.47 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 82% and both teams to score at 80%, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.
Recent form
Cruzeiro U20
- 2026-08-15T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Nacional de Muriae U20 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-07T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Itabirito U20 · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-07-31T18:00:00.000Z · H vs América Mineiro U20 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-26T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Paranoa U20 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Mineiro U20 · 0-0 (D)
Santa Maria U20
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Brasiliense U20 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brasiliense U20 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 9 |
| 2 | Legiao U20 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 3 | Sobradinho U20 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 6 |
| 4 | Taguatinga U20 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 |
| 5 | Capital TO U20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| 6 | Samambaia U20 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 7 | Gama U20 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Brazlândia FC SAF U20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 9 | CFZ Brasilia U20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -7 | 3 |
| 10 | ARUC U20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -14 | 0 |
| 11 | Planaltina U20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -21 | 0 |
| 1 | Planaltina DF U20 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 12 |
| 2 | Grêmio Valparaíso U20 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 |
| 3 | Canaã U20 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 4 | Real Brasília U20 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 5 | Brasília U20 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | Paranoa U20 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 4 |
| 7 | Cruzeiro U20 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 4 |
| 8 | Ceilandense U20 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -7 | 4 |
| 9 | Santa Maria U20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 10 | Luziânia U20 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
| 11 | Ceilândia U20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.