Governador Magalhães Pinto · Referee Ramon Abatti Abel, Brazil · Analysis updated 04:11 UTC
Cruzeiro vs Santos Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.87 expected goals for Cruzeiro and 1.35 for Santos, a combined total of 3.22. That distribution gives Cruzeiro the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws roughly 50% of the time.
Model pick
Cruzeiro to Win
49.7% probability
Expected goals
1.87 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.1%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–07.5%
- 2–07.0%
- 1–26.8%
Why the model likes this
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cruzeiro to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 23% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.87 goals for Cruzeiro and 1.35 for Santos, a combined 3.22 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 62% and both teams to score at 63%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Recent form
Cruzeiro
Santos
- 2026-08-13T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Macara · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-09T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Paranaense · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-05T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Remo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Remo · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-29T00:30:00.000Z · H vs UCV · 4-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-22T19:00:00.000Z · Cruzeiro 0-0 Santos (Serie A)
- 2025-12-07T19:00:00.000Z · Cruzeiro 0-3 Santos (Serie A)
- 2025-08-10T21:30:00.000Z · Cruzeiro 1-2 Santos (Serie A)
- 2023-09-14T22:00:00.000Z · Cruzeiro 3-0 Santos (Serie A)
- 2023-05-06T19:00:00.000Z · Cruzeiro 2-1 Santos (Serie A)
- 2019-11-24T00:00:00.000Z · Cruzeiro 1-4 Santos (Serie A)
- 2019-08-18T19:00:00.000Z · Cruzeiro 2-0 Santos (Serie A)
- 2018-09-23T22:00:00.000Z · Cruzeiro 2-1 Santos (Serie A)
- 2018-08-15T22:30:00.000Z · Cruzeiro 1-2 Santos (Copa Do Brasil)
- 2018-08-01T22:30:00.000Z · Cruzeiro 1-0 Santos (Copa Do Brasil)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 48 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 21 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 42 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 41 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 23 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 38 |
| 5 | Cruzeiro | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 33 |
| 6 | Bahia | 22 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 33 |
| 7 | RB Bragantino | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 32 |
| 8 | Corinthians | 22 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 32 |
| 9 | Botafogo | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 30 |
| 10 | Coritiba | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 30 |
| 11 | Atletico-MG | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 29 |
| 12 | Sao Paulo | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 26 |
| 13 | Vitoria | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | -11 | 26 |
| 14 | Gremio | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | -3 | 25 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | -6 | 23 |
| 16 | Internacional | 22 | 5 | 8 | 9 | -4 | 23 |
| 17 | Santos | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | -6 | 22 |
| 18 | Vasco DA Gama | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | -8 | 22 |
| 19 | Remo | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | -10 | 22 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 21 | 1 | 7 | 13 | -23 | 10 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.