Bulgaria · Third League - Southwest · Southwest - 614:00

14:00 UTC

Saturday, 5 September 2026

· Analysis updated 23:43 UTC

CSKA Sofia III vs Slavia Sofia II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.07 expected goals for CSKA Sofia III and 0.88 for Slavia Sofia II, a combined total of 1.95. That distribution gives CSKA Sofia III the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws roughly 61% of the time.

Model pick

CSKA Sofia III or Draw

70.6% probability

High confidence

Expected goals

1.07 – 0.88

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

CSKA Sofia III win40%
Draw31%
Slavia Sofia II win29%

Double chance 1X

71%

Double chance 12

69%

Double chance X2

61%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals58%
Over 2.5 goals31%
Over 3.5 goals13%
Both teams to score38%

Correct score

  • 1–015.2%
  • 0–014.2%
  • 1–113.4%
  • 0–112.5%
  • 2–08.2%

Why the model likes this

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates CSKA Sofia III to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 31% / 29% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.07 goals for CSKA Sofia III and 0.88 for Slavia Sofia II, a combined 1.95 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 31% and both teams to score at 38%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%.

  • Model confidence

    CSKA Sofia III or Draw is the headline pick at 71% with high confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

CSKA Sofia III

    Slavia Sofia II

      Head-to-head

      Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

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      Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.