National Stadium Vasil Levski · Referee D. Schlager · Analysis updated 21:17 UTC
CSKA Sofia vs Maccabi Tel Aviv Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for CSKA Sofia and 2.15 for Maccabi Tel Aviv, a combined total of 3.60. That distribution gives Maccabi Tel Aviv the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws roughly 46% of the time.
Model pick
Maccabi Tel Aviv to Win
53.6% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 2.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.2%
- 1–18.5%
- 2–26.6%
- 1–36.6%
- 0–26.3%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates Maccabi Tel Aviv to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 26% / 21% / 54% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for CSKA Sofia and 2.15 for Maccabi Tel Aviv, a combined 3.60 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 70% and both teams to score at 68%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Model confidence
Maccabi Tel Aviv to Win is the headline pick at 54% with low confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
CSKA Sofia
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.