Estadio Jocay · Referee Alex Fabricio Cajas Torres, Ecuador · Analysis updated 03:28 UTC
Delfin SC vs Macara Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.85 expected goals for Delfin SC and 0.97 for Macara, a combined total of 1.83. That distribution gives Macara the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws roughly 63% of the time.
Model pick
Macara or Draw
69.6% probability
Expected goals
0.85 – 0.97
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–016.1%
- 0–115.7%
- 1–013.7%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–27.7%
Why the model likes this
Delfin SC home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Macara to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 30% / 33% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.85 goals for Delfin SC and 0.97 for Macara, a combined 1.83 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 28% and both teams to score at 36%, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%.
Recent form
Delfin SC
- 2026-08-15T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Independiente del Valle · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-09T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Orense SC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-04T00:00:00.000Z · A vs LDU de Quito · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-26T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Leones del Norte · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-21T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Libertad · 0-1 (L)
Macara
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.