Deportivo Alavés II vs Real Jaén Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Deportivo Alavés II and 1.00 for Real Jaén, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Deportivo Alavés II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws roughly 39% of the time.

Model pick

Deportivo Alavés II to Win

60.6% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

2.00 – 1.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Deportivo Alavés II win61%

Draw21%

Real Jaén win18%

Double chance 1X

82%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

40%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–010.0%
1–110.0%
2–010.0%
2–110.0%
3–06.6%

Why the model likes this

Deportivo Alavés II home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Real Jaén away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Deportivo Alavés II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 21% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Deportivo Alavés II and 1.00 for Real Jaén, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Deportivo Alavés II

2026-05-17T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Jaén · 0-1 (L)
2026-05-10T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Jaén · 2-1 (W)
2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Gernika · 0-0 (D)
2026-04-26T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Tudelano · 2-1 (W)
2026-04-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ejea · 3-0 (W)

Real Jaén

2026-08-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Cordoba · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-24T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Cacereño · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-31T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Baleares · 2-1 (W)
2026-05-24T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Baleares · 2-1 (W)
2026-05-17T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Alavés II · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-05-17T10:00:00.000Z · Deportivo Alavés II 0-1 Real Jaén (Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs)
2026-05-10T16:30:00.000Z · Deportivo Alavés II 2-1 Real Jaén (Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs)

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.