MGM Timber Bayview Stadium · Analysis updated 03:53 UTC
East Fife vs Hamilton Academical Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.79 expected goals for East Fife and 1.54 for Hamilton Academical, a combined total of 2.33. That distribution gives Hamilton Academical the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws roughly 45% of the time.
Model pick
Hamilton Academical to Win
54.9% probability
Expected goals
0.79 – 1.54
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
45%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.0%
- 1–111.9%
- 0–211.5%
- 0–09.7%
- 1–29.1%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hamilton Academical to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 19% / 26% / 55% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.79 goals for East Fife and 1.54 for Hamilton Academical, a combined 2.33 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 41% and both teams to score at 43%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%.
Model confidence
Hamilton Academical to Win is the headline pick at 55% with low confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
East Fife
Hamilton Academical
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamilton Academical | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 9 |
| 2 | East Kilbride | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| 3 | Ross County | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Peterhead | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Alloa Athletic | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 6 | East Fife | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Airdrie United | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -4 | 2 |
| 8 | Cove Rangers | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
| 9 | Queen of the South | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 10 | Montrose | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -9 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.