· Analysis updated 07:09 UTC
Elche vs Deportivo La Coruna Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Elche and 1.14 for Deportivo La Coruna, a combined total of 2.39. That distribution gives Elche the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws roughly 61% of the time.
Model pick
Elche or Draw
66.5% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.14
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.1%
- 1–011.4%
- 0–110.4%
- 0–09.1%
- 2–18.2%
Why the model likes this
Elche home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Deportivo La Coruna away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Elche to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 28% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Elche and 1.14 for Deportivo La Coruna, a combined 2.39 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Recent form
Elche
- 2026-07-31T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Cordoba · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-28T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Ain · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-24T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Johor Darul Takzim FC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Kaizer Chiefs · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-23T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Girona · 1-1 (D)
Deportivo La Coruna
- 2026-08-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Madrid · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Genoa · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Fiorentina · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-01T16:30:00.000Z · A vs FC St. Pauli · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-29T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Lugo · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alaves | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 2 | Sevilla | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Barcelona | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Villarreal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Atletico Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Real Betis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Celta Vigo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Valencia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Real Sociedad | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Espanyol | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Athletic Club | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Elche | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Levante | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Osasuna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Racing Santander | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Deportivo La Coruna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | Malaga | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 | Rayo Vallecano | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 20 | Getafe | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.