Elche vs Villarreal Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Elche and 1.37 for Villarreal, a combined total of 2.76. That distribution gives Elche the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws roughly 62% of the time.

Model pick

Elche or Draw

63.2% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.39 – 1.37

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Elche win38%

Draw26%

Villarreal win37%

Double chance 1X

63%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score56%

Correct score

1–112.0%
1–08.8%
0–18.7%
2–18.4%
1–28.3%

Why the model likes this

Elche home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Villarreal away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Elche to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 26% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for Elche and 1.37 for Villarreal, a combined 2.76 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Elche

2026-07-31T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Cordoba · 2-2 (D)
2026-07-28T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Ain · 2-2 (D)
2026-07-24T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Johor Darul Takzim FC · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Kaizer Chiefs · 2-1 (W)
2026-05-23T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Girona · 1-1 (D)

Villarreal

2026-08-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Galatasaray · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-05T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Levante · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Lens · 1-3 (L)
2026-07-29T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Como · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-29T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Ula · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

La Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Alaves	1	1	0	3	3
2	Sevilla	1	1	0	1	3
3	Barcelona	0	0	0	0	0
4	Real Madrid	0	0	0	0	0
5	Villarreal	0	0	0	0	0
6	Atletico Madrid	0	0	0	0	0
7	Real Betis	0	0	0	0	0
8	Celta Vigo	0	0	0	0	0
9	Valencia	0	0	0	0	0
10	Real Sociedad	0	0	0	0	0
11	Espanyol	0	0	0	0	0
12	Athletic Club	0	0	0	0	0
13	Elche	0	0	0	0	0
14	Levante	0	0	0	0	0
15	Osasuna	0	0	0	0	0
16	Racing Santander	0	0	0	0	0
17	Deportivo La Coruna	0	0	0	0	0
18	Malaga	0	0	0	0	0
19	Rayo Vallecano	1	0	1	-1	0
20	Getafe	1	0	1	-3	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.