Estoril vs Benfica Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Estoril and 1.50 for Benfica, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Estoril the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws roughly 62% of the time.

Model pick

Estoril or Draw

62.1% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.50 – 1.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Estoril win38%

Draw24%

Benfica win38%

Double chance 1X

62%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

1–111.2%
1–28.4%
2–18.4%
0–17.5%
1–07.5%

Why the model likes this

Estoril home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Estoril to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 24% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Estoril and 1.50 for Benfica, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 58% and both teams to score at 60%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.

Recent form

Estoril

2026-08-07T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Famalicao · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-31T18:00:00.000Z · A vs CF Os Belenenses · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Torreense · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-22T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Alverca · 0-2 (L)
2026-07-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético CP · 3-0 (W)

Benfica

2026-08-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Heart Of Midlothian · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-09T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Academico Viseu · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Heart Of Midlothian · 6-1 (W)
2026-07-30T19:00:00.000Z · H vs FC ST. Gallen · 5-0 (W)
2026-07-24T17:00:00.000Z · H vs CF Os Belenenses · 5-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primeira Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Porto	34	28	4	2	48	88
2	Sporting CP	34	25	7	2	65	82
3	Benfica	34	23	11	0	49	80
4	SC Braga	34	16	11	7	28	59
5	Famalicao	34	15	11	8	13	56
6	GIL Vicente	34	13	11	10	9	50
7	Moreirense	34	12	7	15	-12	43
8	Arouca	34	12	6	16	-17	42
9	Guimaraes	34	12	6	16	-12	42
10	Estoril	34	10	9	15	-3	39
11	Alverca	34	10	9	15	-17	39
12	Rio Ave	34	8	12	14	-22	36
13	Santa Clara	34	9	9	16	-9	36
14	Nacional	34	9	7	18	-8	34
15	Estrela	34	6	12	16	-18	30
16	Casa Pia	34	6	12	16	-26	30
17	Tondela	34	6	10	18	-28	28
18	AVS	34	3	12	19	-40	21

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.