Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota · Analysis updated 05:19 UTC
Estoril vs Santa Clara Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Estoril and 1.25 for Santa Clara, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Santa Clara the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws roughly 58% of the time.
Model pick
Santa Clara or Draw
70.5% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.2%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–010.5%
- 1–010.5%
- 0–28.2%
Why the model likes this
Estoril home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 8 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Santa Clara to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 30% / 29% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Estoril and 1.25 for Santa Clara, a combined 2.25 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Recent form
Estoril
- 2026-08-07T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Famalicao · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-31T18:00:00.000Z · A vs CF Os Belenenses · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Torreense · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-22T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Alverca · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético CP · 3-0 (W)
Santa Clara
Head-to-head
- 2026-01-31T15:30:00.000Z · Estoril 4-2 Santa Clara (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-09-06T19:30:00.000Z · Estoril 0-1 Santa Clara (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-01-18T15:30:00.000Z · Estoril 3-2 Santa Clara (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-08-11T14:30:00.000Z · Estoril 1-4 Santa Clara (Primeira Liga)
- 2023-04-30T14:30:00.000Z · Estoril 3-0 Santa Clara (Primeira Liga)
- 2022-11-14T20:15:00.000Z · Estoril 1-3 Santa Clara (Primeira Liga)
- 2022-04-10T14:30:00.000Z · Estoril 0-2 Santa Clara (Primeira Liga)
- 2021-11-29T20:15:00.000Z · Estoril 2-2 Santa Clara (Primeira Liga)
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Santa Clara | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | GIL Vicente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Maritimo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Arouca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Estrela | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 8 | SC Braga | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Famalicao | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Estoril | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Moreirense | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Benfica | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Nacional | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 | Academico Viseu | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 15 | Alverca | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 17 | Vitória SC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 18 | Rio Ave | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.