Argentina · Liga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 5HT

1 – 0

Saturday, 15 August 2026

Estadio Ciudad de La Plata · Referee Yael Falcon Perez, Argentina · Analysis updated 20:40 UTC

Estudiantes L.P. vs Gimnasia L.P. Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.27 expected goals for Estudiantes L.P. and 0.88 for Gimnasia L.P., a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Estudiantes L.P. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws roughly 55% of the time.

Model pick

Estudiantes L.P. to Win

45.4% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.27 – 0.88

Model version

poisson-market-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Estudiantes L.P. win45%

Draw29%

Gimnasia L.P. win26%

Double chance 1X

74%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

55%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals63%

Over 2.5 goals36%

Over 3.5 goals17%

Both teams to score42%

Correct score

1–014.8%
1–113.0%
0–011.6%
0–110.3%
2–09.4%

Why the model likes this

Estudiantes L.P. home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gimnasia L.P. away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Odds comparison

Indicative prices for the main markets.

Market	Selection	Odds	Bookmaker
Match Result	Home	2.12	10Bet
Match Result	Draw	2.96	10Bet
Match Result	Away	3.80	10Bet
Goals	Over 1.5	1.50	10Bet
Goals	Under 1.5	2.55	10Bet
Goals	Over 2.5	2.55	10Bet
Goals	Under 2.5	1.50	10Bet
Goals	Over 3.5	5.00	10Bet
Goals	Under 3.5	1.17	10Bet
Goals	Over 0.5	1.11	10Bet
Goals	Under 0.5	6.25	10Bet
Goals	Over 4.5	9.50	10Bet
Goals	Under 4.5	1.05	10Bet
BTTS	Yes	2.10	10Bet
BTTS	No	1.67	10Bet
Double Chance	Home/Draw	1.25	10Bet
Double Chance	Home/Away	1.33	10Bet
Double Chance	Draw/Away	1.67	10Bet

Recent form

Estudiantes L.P.

2026-08-12T00:30:00.000Z · H vs U. Catolica · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-08T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Riestra · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-05T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Boca Juniors · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-01T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Defensa Y Justicia · 3-0 (W)
2026-07-26T20:15:00.000Z · H vs Independiente · 0-2 (L)

Gimnasia L.P.

2026-08-09T20:45:00.000Z · H vs Barracas Central · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-02T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Aldosivi · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-29T22:15:00.000Z · H vs River Plate · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-24T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Club · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-07T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Makhachkala · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-02-15T20:00:00.000Z · Estudiantes L.P. 0-0 Gimnasia L.P. (Liga Profesional Argentina)
2025-12-08T20:00:00.000Z · Estudiantes L.P. 1-0 Gimnasia L.P. (Liga Profesional Argentina)
2025-10-19T18:00:00.000Z · Estudiantes L.P. 2-0 Gimnasia L.P. (Liga Profesional Argentina)
2025-04-13T18:30:00.000Z · Estudiantes L.P. 1-1 Gimnasia L.P. (Liga Profesional Argentina)
2024-07-28T18:00:00.000Z · Estudiantes L.P. 4-1 Gimnasia L.P. (Liga Profesional Argentina)
2024-02-25T22:30:00.000Z · Estudiantes L.P. 0-0 Gimnasia L.P. (Copa de la Liga Profesional)
2023-10-01T20:00:00.000Z · Estudiantes L.P. 0-0 Gimnasia L.P. (Copa de la Liga Profesional)
2023-03-19T19:30:00.000Z · Estudiantes L.P. 1-2 Gimnasia L.P. (Liga Profesional Argentina)
2022-06-05T20:00:00.000Z · Estudiantes L.P. 1-1 Gimnasia L.P. (Liga Profesional Argentina)
2022-03-20T19:15:00.000Z · Estudiantes L.P. 1-1 Gimnasia L.P. (Liga Profesional Argentina)

Liga Profesional Argentina table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Estudiantes L.P.	16	9	4	3	12	31
2	Boca Juniors	16	8	6	2	13	30
3	Velez Sarsfield	16	7	7	2	6	28
4	Talleres Cordoba	16	7	5	4	4	26
5	Independiente	16	6	6	4	4	24
6	Lanus	16	6	6	4	3	24
7	San Lorenzo	16	5	7	4	0	22
8	Union Santa Fe	16	5	6	5	4	21
9	Instituto Cordoba	16	6	3	7	0	21
10	Defensa Y Justicia	16	4	7	5	-3	19
11	Gimnasia M.	16	5	4	7	-8	19
12	Platense	16	3	7	6	-5	16
13	Central Cordoba de Santiago	16	4	4	8	-10	16
14	Newells Old Boys	16	3	6	7	-12	15
15	Deportivo Riestra	16	1	8	7	-7	11
1	Independ. Rivadavia	16	10	4	2	14	34
2	River Plate	16	9	2	5	10	29
3	Argentinos JRS	16	8	5	3	4	29
4	Rosario Central	16	8	4	4	4	28
5	Belgrano Cordoba	16	7	5	4	4	26
6	Gimnasia L.P.	16	8	2	6	0	26
7	Huracan	16	5	7	4	4	22
8	Racing Club	16	5	6	5	2	21
9	Barracas Central	16	5	6	5	0	21
10	Tigre	16	4	8	4	3	20
11	Sarmiento Junin	16	6	1	9	-7	19
12	Banfield	16	5	3	8	-2	18
13	Atletico Tucuman	16	3	5	8	-5	14
14	Aldosivi	16	0	8	8	-13	8
15	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	16	1	2	13	-19	5
1	Velez Sarsfield	4	3	1	0	4	10
2	Instituto Cordoba	4	3	0	1	2	9
3	Defensa Y Justicia	4	2	1	1	-1	7
4	Deportivo Riestra	4	2	0	2	3	6
5	Lanus	4	2	0	2	2	6
6	Independiente	4	2	0	2	1	6
7	Gimnasia M.	4	2	0	2	1	6
8	Central Cordoba de Santiago	4	2	0	2	-1	6
9	Boca Juniors	4	1	2	1	-2	5
10	Newells Old Boys	4	1	1	2	-1	4
11	Union Santa Fe	4	1	1	2	-2	4
12	Platense	4	1	1	2	-4	4
13	Talleres Cordoba	4	1	0	3	-2	3
14	Estudiantes L.P.	4	1	0	3	-2	3
15	San Lorenzo	4	1	0	3	-3	3
1	Argentinos JRS	4	4	0	0	6	12
2	Gimnasia L.P.	4	3	0	1	3	9
3	Barracas Central	4	3	0	1	1	9
4	Belgrano Cordoba	4	2	1	1	2	7
5	Tigre	4	2	1	1	2	7
6	Huracan	4	2	1	1	2	7
7	Independ. Rivadavia	4	2	1	1	1	7
8	Rosario Central	4	2	1	1	1	7
9	Banfield	5	2	1	2	-1	7
10	Sarmiento Junin	4	2	0	2	0	6
11	Atletico Tucuman	4	1	2	1	1	5
12	Racing Club	5	1	1	3	-3	4
13	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	4	1	1	2	-3	4
14	Aldosivi	4	0	1	3	-3	1
15	River Plate	4	0	0	4	-4	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.