England · Non League Premier - Southern South · Regular Season - 714:00

14:00 UTC

Saturday, 12 September 2026

· Analysis updated 23:44 UTC

Evesham United vs Berkhamsted Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.27 expected goals for Evesham United and 1.45 for Berkhamsted, a combined total of 3.73. That distribution gives Evesham United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws roughly 44% of the time.

Model pick

Evesham United to Win

55.9% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

2.27 – 1.45

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Evesham United win56%
Draw20%
Berkhamsted win24%

Double chance 1X

76%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

44%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%
Over 2.5 goals72%
Over 3.5 goals51%
Both teams to score69%

Correct score

  • 2–19.0%
  • 1–18.0%
  • 3–16.8%
  • 2–26.6%
  • 2–06.2%

Why the model likes this

  • Evesham United home form

    7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Evesham United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 20% / 24% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 2.27 goals for Evesham United and 1.45 for Berkhamsted, a combined 3.73 — an open game on paper.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 72% and both teams to score at 69%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.

Recent form

Evesham United

  • 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chichester City · 3-0 (W)
  • 2026-08-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Frome Town · 0-4 (L)
  • 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Basingstoke Town · 4-2 (W)
  • 2026-07-31T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Bishop's Cleeve · 1-1 (D)
  • 2026-07-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cheltenham · 0-3 (L)

Berkhamsted

    Head-to-head

    Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

    Non League Premier - Southern South table

    Full league page →
    #TeamPWDLGDPts
    1Chertsey Town321047
    2Uxbridge321047
    3Bath City321027
    4Frome Town320156
    5Taunton Town320126
    6Hanworth Villa320126
    7Evesham United320116
    8Hanwell Town312015
    9Yate Town312015
    10Plymouth Parkway311164
    11Sholing311104
    12Chippenham Town3111-14
    13Bracknell Town3111-64
    14Basingstoke Town3102-13
    15Berkhamsted3102-23
    16Poole Town3102-23
    17Chichester City3102-33
    18Havant & Wville3102-33
    19Malvern Town3021-32
    20Gloucester City3012-21
    21Gosport Borough3012-21
    22Wimborne Town3012-31

    Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.