England · Non League Premier - Southern South · Regular Season - 514:00

14:00 UTC

Saturday, 29 August 2026

· Analysis updated 23:46 UTC

Evesham United vs Plymouth Parkway Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.91 expected goals for Evesham United and 2.28 for Plymouth Parkway, a combined total of 4.19. That distribution gives Plymouth Parkway the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws roughly 53% of the time.

Model pick

Plymouth Parkway to Win

46.9% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.91 – 2.28

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Evesham United win33%
Draw20%
Plymouth Parkway win47%

Double chance 1X

53%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

67%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals92%
Over 2.5 goals79%
Over 3.5 goals60%
Both teams to score76%

Correct score

  • 1–27.5%
  • 2–27.2%
  • 1–16.6%
  • 2–16.3%
  • 1–35.7%

Why the model likes this

  • Evesham United home form

    7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Plymouth Parkway to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 33% / 20% / 47% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.91 goals for Evesham United and 2.28 for Plymouth Parkway, a combined 4.19 — an open game on paper.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 79% and both teams to score at 76%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.

Recent form

Evesham United

  • 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chichester City · 3-0 (W)
  • 2026-08-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Frome Town · 0-4 (L)
  • 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Basingstoke Town · 4-2 (W)
  • 2026-07-31T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Bishop's Cleeve · 1-1 (D)
  • 2026-07-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cheltenham · 0-3 (L)

Plymouth Parkway

    Head-to-head

    Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

    Non League Premier - Southern South table

    Full league page →
    #TeamPWDLGDPts
    1Chertsey Town321047
    2Uxbridge321047
    3Bath City321027
    4Frome Town320156
    5Taunton Town320126
    6Hanworth Villa320126
    7Evesham United320116
    8Hanwell Town312015
    9Yate Town312015
    10Plymouth Parkway311164
    11Sholing311104
    12Chippenham Town3111-14
    13Bracknell Town3111-64
    14Basingstoke Town3102-13
    15Berkhamsted3102-23
    16Poole Town3102-23
    17Chichester City3102-33
    18Havant & Wville3102-33
    19Malvern Town3021-32
    20Gloucester City3012-21
    21Gosport Borough3012-21
    22Wimborne Town3012-31

    Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.