Famalicao vs FC Porto Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for Famalicao and 1.35 for FC Porto, a combined total of 2.38. That distribution gives FC Porto the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.

Model pick

FC Porto or Draw

71.5% probability

High confidence

Expected goals

1.03 – 1.35

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Famalicao win29%

Draw27%

FC Porto win44%

Double chance 1X

56%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

72%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals69%

Over 2.5 goals43%

Over 3.5 goals22%

Both teams to score48%

Correct score

1–112.9%
0–112.5%
1–09.5%
0–09.2%
1–28.7%

Why the model likes this

Famalicao home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Porto away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Porto to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 29% / 27% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.03 goals for Famalicao and 1.35 for FC Porto, a combined 2.38 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Recent form

Famalicao

2026-08-07T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Estoril · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-31T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Como · 2-3 (L)
2026-07-28T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Lens · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-28T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Crystal Palace · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-25T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Tondela · 1-0 (W)

FC Porto

2026-08-15T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Rio Ave · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Alverca · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-01T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Torreense · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-25T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Aston Villa · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-22T19:00:00.000Z · A vs GIL Vicente · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primeira Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Porto	34	28	4	2	48	88
2	Sporting CP	34	25	7	2	65	82
3	Benfica	34	23	11	0	49	80
4	SC Braga	34	16	11	7	28	59
5	Famalicao	34	15	11	8	13	56
6	GIL Vicente	34	13	11	10	9	50
7	Moreirense	34	12	7	15	-12	43
8	Arouca	34	12	6	16	-17	42
9	Guimaraes	34	12	6	16	-12	42
10	Estoril	34	10	9	15	-3	39
11	Alverca	34	10	9	15	-17	39
12	Rio Ave	34	8	12	14	-22	36
13	Santa Clara	34	9	9	16	-9	36
14	Nacional	34	9	7	18	-8	34
15	Estrela	34	6	12	16	-18	30
16	Casa Pia	34	6	12	16	-26	30
17	Tondela	34	6	10	18	-28	28
18	AVS	34	3	12	19	-40	21

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.