FC Astana vs Aktobe Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.71 expected goals for FC Astana and 1.15 for Aktobe, a combined total of 2.86. That distribution gives FC Astana the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws roughly 50% of the time.

Model pick

FC Astana to Win

50.3% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.71 – 1.15

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

FC Astana win50%

Draw24%

Aktobe win26%

Double chance 1X

74%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

50%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals78%

Over 2.5 goals55%

Over 3.5 goals32%

Both teams to score56%

Correct score

1–111.3%
1–09.8%
2–19.6%
2–08.3%
0–16.6%

Why the model likes this

Aktobe away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Astana to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 24% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.71 goals for FC Astana and 1.15 for Aktobe, a combined 2.86 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 55% and both teams to score at 56%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.

Recent form

FC Astana

Aktobe

2026-08-15T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Kaisar · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Atyrau · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kyzyl-Zhar · 1-3 (L)
2026-07-25T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Okzhetpes · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Altay · 4-2 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ordabasy	22	16	4	2	27	52
2	Kairat Almaty	21	14	6	1	27	48
3	FC Astana	20	11	5	4	12	38
4	Aktobe	22	10	5	7	6	35
5	Okzhetpes	21	9	6	6	1	33
6	Yelimay Semey	20	8	7	5	5	31
7	Ulytau	22	7	7	8	-6	28
8	Zhenys	21	6	8	7	-3	26
9	Kyzyl-Zhar	21	6	5	10	-5	23
10	Kaspiy	21	6	4	11	-7	22
11	FK Tobol Kostanay	20	6	4	10	-7	22
12	Atyrau	20	3	11	6	-4	20
13	Kaisar	21	3	11	7	-8	20
14	Zhetysu	22	4	7	11	-14	19
15	Irtysh	20	3	8	9	-8	17
16	Altay	22	3	8	11	-16	17

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.