FC Basel 1893 vs Barcelona Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for FC Basel 1893 and 1.18 for Barcelona, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives FC Basel 1893 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.

Model pick

FC Basel 1893 or Draw

69.8% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-baseline-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

FC Basel 1893 win44%

Draw26%

Barcelona win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.2%
1–010.4%
2–19.0%
0–18.3%
2–07.7%

Why the model likes this

FC Basel 1893 home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Barcelona away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Basel 1893 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for FC Basel 1893 and 1.18 for Barcelona, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

FC Basel 1893

2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Courtételle · 6-1 (W)
2026-08-09T14:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Thun · 4-2 (W)
2026-08-01T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Lausanne · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Servette FC · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-18T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Juventus · 0-0 (D)

Barcelona

2026-08-08T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Udinese · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-08T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Nottingham Forest · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-31T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Birmingham · 2-2 (D)
2026-07-24T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Europa Fc · 4-1 (W)
2026-05-23T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Valencia · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.