Right to Dream Park · Referee E. Malcevs · Analysis updated 07:09 UTC
FC Nordsjaelland vs Valur Reykjavik Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.00 expected goals for FC Nordsjaelland and 0.90 for Valur Reykjavik, a combined total of 3.90. That distribution gives FC Nordsjaelland the largest share of the 1X2 market at 79%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 79% favourite still loses or draws roughly 21% of the time.
Model pick
FC Nordsjaelland to Win
79.3% probability
Expected goals
3.00 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
92%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
21%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–09.1%
- 3–09.1%
- 2–18.2%
- 3–18.2%
- 4–06.8%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Nordsjaelland to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 79%, against 79% / 13% / 8% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.00 goals for FC Nordsjaelland and 0.90 for Valur Reykjavik, a combined 3.90 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 74% and both teams to score at 56%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Model confidence
FC Nordsjaelland to Win is the headline pick at 79% with high confidence, from a data-quality score of 70/100 while season data is still limited.
Recent form
FC Nordsjaelland
Valur Reykjavik
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.