FC Porto vs GIL Vicente Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for FC Porto and 0.60 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 2.38. That distribution gives FC Porto the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws roughly 34% of the time.

Model pick

FC Porto to Win

66.1% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.78 – 0.60

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

FC Porto win66%

Draw22%

GIL Vicente win12%

Double chance 1X

88%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

34%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals69%

Over 2.5 goals43%

Over 3.5 goals22%

Both teams to score38%

Correct score

1–016.5%
2–014.7%
1–19.9%
0–09.2%
2–18.8%

Why the model likes this

Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Porto to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 66% / 22% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.78 goals for FC Porto and 0.60 for GIL Vicente, a combined 2.38 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 43% and both teams to score at 38%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%.
Model confidence
FC Porto to Win is the headline pick at 66% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

FC Porto

GIL Vicente

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primeira Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Porto	34	28	4	2	48	88
2	Sporting CP	34	25	7	2	65	82
3	Benfica	34	23	11	0	49	80
4	SC Braga	34	16	11	7	28	59
5	Famalicao	34	15	11	8	13	56
6	GIL Vicente	34	13	11	10	9	50
7	Moreirense	34	12	7	15	-12	43
8	Arouca	34	12	6	16	-17	42
9	Guimaraes	34	12	6	16	-12	42
10	Estoril	34	10	9	15	-3	39
11	Alverca	34	10	9	15	-17	39
12	Rio Ave	34	8	12	14	-22	36
13	Santa Clara	34	9	9	16	-9	36
14	Nacional	34	9	7	18	-8	34
15	Estrela	34	6	12	16	-18	30
16	Casa Pia	34	6	12	16	-26	30
17	Tondela	34	6	10	18	-28	28
18	AVS	34	3	12	19	-40	21

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.