Kybunpark · Referee J. Weinberger · Analysis updated 21:18 UTC
FC ST. Gallen vs Sheriff Tiraspol Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.00 expected goals for FC ST. Gallen and 1.00 for Sheriff Tiraspol, a combined total of 4.00. That distribution gives FC ST. Gallen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws roughly 23% of the time.
Model pick
FC ST. Gallen to Win
77.4% probability
Expected goals
3.00 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
23%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–08.2%
- 2–18.2%
- 3–08.2%
- 3–18.2%
- 4–06.2%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC ST. Gallen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 77%, against 77% / 13% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.00 goals for FC ST. Gallen and 1.00 for Sheriff Tiraspol, a combined 4.00 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 76% and both teams to score at 60%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Model confidence
FC ST. Gallen to Win is the headline pick at 77% with high confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
FC ST. Gallen
Sheriff Tiraspol
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.